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Health & Fitness

Winter storm on the way for tomorrow

Another winter storm is on the way, by the way Winter doesn't start until December 21, and the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas are in the cross hairs for snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain.

The ingredients for the storm are organizing this evening with an Arctic high pressure system dropping southeast this evening towards New England and a moisture loaded Sub Tropical disturbance organizing over the Mississippi River Valley.

The 1040 MB high pressure system will be a key factor in the forecast as this high pressure system is expect to linger over Quebec for the majority of the storm, funneling cold air down the coastal plain.  This factor is what is creating significant concern for the forecast area from Philadelphia to New York City and then along the south shore of Connecticut where snow and ice may linger longer than currently expected.

Find out what's happening in Freeholdwith free, real-time updates from Patch.

Meanwhile, the disturbance over the Mississippi River Valley is expected to track towards the Tennessee River Valley and then redevelop over Delaware and southern New Jersey by tomorrow evening and then track towards the New England coastal waters.  The low pressure system will have plenty of moisture to work with with a clear connection from the Tropical Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean.  The low pressure system is expected to move quickly with precipitation starting as snow for all locations by late tomorrow morning and continuing as snow, sleet, and rain through early Sunday morning.  The track of this low pressure system will be very important as a shift to the west (warmer) or east (colder) would have significant impacts on the current forecast, especially for Philadelphia, central New Jersey, and the New York City metropolitan area.


The current forecast is largely unchanged from this morning.  The interior (purple) can expect all snow with as much as a foot of snow possible in some isolated locations.  Most locations will range from 5 to 10 inches.  The green shaded areas will be the first to change over to rain with little if any accumulation of snow or ice expected, however rainfall amounts of over an inch will be possible with localized flash flooding.

The areas in blue, dark and light, are the areas with highest volatility as these locations will sit on a dynamic thermal gradient at the surface up to 850 MB.  The I-95 corridor will likely feature a very tight snow gradient from a trace of snow to over 6" in some spots in a span of less than 20 miles.  In fact, some mesoscale models produce a thermal gradient of almost 20 degrees as temperatures over north-central New Jersey will be around 24 degrees and coastal Monmouth County will easily be in the mid 40's with heavy rain.  As such, the forecast in these areas have a low confidence due to this uncertainty.  Currently in the areas of dark blue, snowfall amounts of 3" to 6" can be expected with up to 0.10" of ice followed by heavy rainfall after 3 AM Sunday.  In the light blue areas, snowfall amounts of 2" to 4" are expect with isolated amounts up to 6" before changing over to rain by 1 AM.

Find out what's happening in Freeholdwith free, real-time updates from Patch.

This storm is expected to pick up by 1 PM tomorrow and continue on through early Sunday morning ending between 6 AM and 8 AM.  The worst conditions will be from 5 PM Saturday through 5 AM Sunday.

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