Active, Stormy Weather Pattern Here to Stay

A major coastal storm is expected to develop for Saturday morning and continue on through Saturday evening producing heavy rainfall and even a brief period of snow for central New Jersey.  This storm has many a bit worried as the idea of snow even being in the forecast before Halloween is likely catching many off guard.  However, we should expect more of the same over the next several months.

Over the past several weeks I’ve been laying out the environmental conditions developing in the Pacific and Atlantic.  The Pacific is rather cold with a negative Pacific Decadial Oscillation and a La Nina.  Meanwhile the Atlantic is warm with a positive Atlantic Multidecadial Oscillation in place.  The combination of these two environments produces a unique weather pattern for the Eastern United States that is very active and volatile.

The winter forecast, which I am issuing today has an above average precipitation and slightly below normal temperatures for much of New Jersey this coming winter.  With a weak east based La Nina in place and a rapidly developing weak negative NAO pattern over the northwestern Atlantic, I expect New Jersey will experience plenty of potential winter storm events over the next several months.  This pattern can produce above normal snowfall amounts once again and will certainly keep this meteorologist on his toes.

The big concern for this coming winter is the development of the thermal gradient along the coast between the coastal plan, which covers much of Monmouth and Ocean Counties, and the coastal waters.  With the Gulf Stream averaging above normal in temperatures and with the surface temperatures expected to average slightly below normal, a powerful thermal gradient will develop along the New Jersey coast.  This of course leads to the threat for rapid, intense coastal low pressure development as these low level thermal gradients can produce some rather interesting and poorly forecasted results.

So if you were looking for a break this winter from snow, ice, and generally stormy weather conditions, I have some bad news for you.  This year is likely going to be as stormy if not more stormy than the past two years.