Cold Pacific Ocean Major Trouble For New Jersey

Monmouth County will experience the joy of summer like conditions this weekend with temperatures rising well above normal for this time of year with highs in the 70’s and 80’s!  Clear skies can be expected along with light winds from the southwest as high pressure slips off the New Jersey coast.  Enjoy these weather conditions while you can! 

I’ve been keeping an eye on the evolution of the Pacific over the past few months and the developments are not good news for Monmouth County or the rest of New Jersey for the next several weeks.  The evolution of very cold waters in the northeastern Pacific , along the Canadian West coast, is a major indicator of a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO.  The PDO has been negative or cold, going back to last winter, but this Fall the PDO is much stronger and that’s having an impact on the Tropical Pacific.  

The connection here is that the cold water over the northeastern Pacific races south along the West coast of the United States towards South America.  This cold stream of water along the West coast is a normal oceanic circulation that becomes enhanced when the PDO is negative.  The enhanced cold water interacts with the developing La Nina at the tropical regions of the Pacific, which leads to an east based La Nina.  I should note that last year with a weaker PDO signal and a stronger La Nina signal, the La Nina was still forced to go east based.  

So why does a cold stream of water along the West coast matter to weather in New Jersey?  Well, the combination of a negative PDO with an east based La Nina, which was seen last year, shifts the influences of a typical La Nina further east.  I’m sure you may have heard of a few weather sources putting out a winter forecast that illustrates a typical La Nina winter.  Aside from the fact that there are other factors aside from La Nina (or El Nino) that impacts the late Fall and Winter patterns in New Jersey, there must be an understanding that there is a big difference between a west based La Nina and an east based La Nina.  

The major difference is the shift of the storm track overall for the winter pattern.  The Southeast ridge is further to the East and thus the storm track is focused along or just east of the New Jersey coast rather than west of New Jersey.  Details are important and that’s why I am holding off my winter forecast until October 28, 2011. 

So you see, the enhancement of a cold stream of water on the West coast does have a major impact on New Jersey and that impact is going to be felt this winter!