This post was contributed by a community member. The views expressed here are the author's own.

Health & Fitness

More Stormy Conditions on the Way For October

Another feature in the northern Pacific is going to lead to an active weather pattern for the rest of October.

A very active weather pattern is developing for central New Jersey for the rest of October and once again we can look to the Pacific Ocean for a reason why.  

A weather pattern in the Pacific called the negative Easter Pacific Oscillation or EPO is becoming established over the Pacific Ocean.  This pattern leads to a deep trough or upper level low around western Alaska and the Aleutian Islands and a ridge over the Western United States.  This of course leads to a trough in the East and the potential for a lot of stormy weather conditions.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation has two phases, positive and negative.  When the oscillation is positive, a deep trough develops just off the West coast of the United States and Canada, which leads to a ridge developing over the central and much of the eastern portions of the United States.  A positive EPO pattern leads to relatively tranquil weather conditions for central New Jersey.  However, when the EPO is negative, the entire upper level pattern retrogrades to the west setting up the upper level pattern that drives cold/cool Canadian air masses from north-central Canada towards New Jersey.  This interaction of air masses can lead to powerful coastal storms for the New Jersey coast as a result.

Find out what's happening in Freeholdwith free, real-time updates from Patch.

The pattern for the rest of October is setting up to have those very same attributes.  As a powerful upper low locks in over the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, a strong ridge will develop over western Canada and much of the northwestern portions of the United States.  This ridge axis will lead to a trough positioned perfectly for coastal low pressure systems to develop over the next 15 days if not longer.  

Of course, no pattern remains in place forever, but when this type of pattern begins to lock in over the Pacific, this type of pattern tends to repeat itself and could lead to significant problems for the East coast over the next several months.

Find out what's happening in Freeholdwith free, real-time updates from Patch.

As for the rest of October, look for the potential for low pressure system to track over New Jersey or just east of New Jersey at the end of each week with the ability to produce heavy rainfall.  Not every week will feature a coastal storm though as sometimes the interaction of disturbances in the atmosphere will push a storm slightly further east, thus sparing the region the worst conditions.  However, central New Jersey is clearly setting up for a very active weather pattern over the next 15 to 20 days.  

We’ve removed the ability to reply as we work to make improvements. Learn more here

The views expressed in this post are the author's own. Want to post on Patch?