Severe thunderstorms a threat for this afternoon

Very warm and humid weather conditions this morning will lead to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening throughout New Jersey.

A dynamic weather pattern that has been developing over the Plains and Mississippi Valley will start to shift east today, which will lead to above normal temperatures and humid conditions becoming established through Monmouth County through this weekend.  As a trough digs over the Great Lakes down through the Tennessee River Valley today on through this weekend, a series of disturbances along and ahead of a weakening cold front will produce the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon.

This afternoon will feature one of the best potentials for severe thunderstorms as a strong disturbance passes to the north of New Jersey.  This disturbance will produce enough lifting to enhance showers and thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania that will track east this afternoon and evening.  As the thunderstorms approach some weakening of the thunderstorms can be expected as the air mass over Monmouth County will not be as unstable as locations to the west due to the marine influences of the Atlantic.  However, these thunderstorms will feature wind gusts over 50 mph, heavy downpours, large hail, frequent lightning, and even an isolated tornado.  At this time, the tornado threat is rather small but still present.  The main impacts to keep an eye on are the strong wind gusts and heavy downpours.  The potential for severe thunderstorms will begin by 1 PM and continue on through 10 PM.

This threat will continue to be an issue through this week and into the weekend as this warm, humid, unstable air mass remains in place with lows in the 60's and highs in the 80's.  Just in time to lead into the Memorial Day Weekend!

For more details on this severe weather threat, visit NY NJ PA Weather!