The three H's of summer return

Last week I promised that a pattern change was on the way, and through this week that pattern change has been evolving, but by the end of this weekend this new upper level pattern will be in full control, just in time to head to the beach!

There are several reasons why the pattern is shifting to a far more hazy, hot, and humid weather pattern which includes the end of La Nina, the very warm Atlantic Ocean due to a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadial Oscillation, and the continuation of a very cold stratosphere in place.  The combination of these features will lead to a powerful upper level ridge from the Plains to the western Atlantic that will transport an air mass that will mature over the Mississippi River Valley with influences from the Gulf of Mexico.  

What will this new pattern bring to central New Jersey and specifically Monmouth County?  Well, first we'll start with temperatures averaging above normal through this month with many days experiencing highs in the upper 80's to mid 90's and lows in the upper 60's to lower 70's.  The high levels of moisture in the atmosphere will also mean that rather humid weather conditions can be expected but also a threat for some rather dense fog in the morning, especially along the Monmouth County coast.  Another theme this month will be pesky strong to severe thunderstorms born out of disorganized yet powerful disturbances.  In this pattern, look for thunderstorm to approach from the northwest and as the thunderstorm dive to the southeast, slowly weaken as they approach the more stable Atlantic Ocean.  If your destination is the beach all summer long, be prepared for a sea breeze that will keep high temperatures in the lower to mid 80's while Freehold bakes in the 90's.  

TROPICAL TROUBLE

I want to issue a little warning going into July to keep an eye on the Tropical Atlantic this month through August.  The upper level pattern I am describing above also strongly supports the potential for tropical storms and hurricanes to make a run up the East coast and yes even the New Jersey coast.  This is no guarantee of course as no meteorologist could make that statement.  However, if I was to create a pattern favorable for such a potential, this up coming pattern would be it.