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Health & Fitness

What Storm Pattern Tells Us About Fall Weather

In this week's discussion, I discuss the threat for a coming rain storm and what clues this storm may give for the pattern this Fall.

A new weather pattern has developed over the Eastern United States with the powerful heat ridge over the Southeast beginning to break down.  This means that disturbances from Canada are now able to dive further to the south, which will lead to a rather wet conditions Sunday through Monday morning.  

A strong disturbance over the northern Plains this morning is expected to dive south towards the Delmarva Penninsula by Sunday morning.  As a result, an area of low pressure will develop over the Tennessee River Valley on Saturday night and track towards the New Jersey coastal waters by Sunday evening with periods of moderate to heavy rain possible.  Rainfall amounts from this storm could range from one to two inches depending on the development of the easterly fetch off the Atlantic on Sunday.

There is still plenty of uncertainty with the timing and strength of this low pressure system, as there are a few aspects of this low pressure system that need to be addressed.  For exmaple, as you know from the previous discussion last week, the seas surface thermal gradient over the New jersey coastal waters is rather strong as water temperatures are 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal.  This type of thermal gradient along the New Jersey coast can significantly enhance a low pressure system tracking over the coastal waters.  There is some question as to whether the medium range models currently used are able to handle this factor at the boundary layer or from the surface to 10 meters up.  This wild card can lead to a slower and stronger low pressure system, which is why there is so disagreement in the track and strength of the low pressure system on Sunday evening.  

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What I can tell you is that this pattern evolution is a clear sign that a rather stormy Fall pattern is starting to evolve.  High latitude blocking in the north Atlantic is allowing this disturbance to dive further to the south and move slowly through the region.  This is a key ingredient for coastal storms no matter the time of year.  Further, the recent evolution of the pattern in the Pacific clearly points to a persistent trough in the Eastern United States.  

This rain storm on Sunday will have the potential to produce localized flash flooding due to the one to two inches of rainfall.  If I am right about the evolution of this pattern overall, this storm will not be the last.  This is great news for those in Monmouth and Ocean counties of New Jersey where rainfall is greatly needed.

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