Where Is The December Snow?

There’s a misconception in the general public that when the calendar turns to December first that snow must be in the air.  It’s no wonder when you see commercial after commercial surrounding the holiday theme with snow, snow men, icicles, and all manners of winter weather.  However, for central New Jersey that wintery scene is far more difficult to come by.

The reason why snow is hard to come by in December for central New Jersey is directly due to the Atlantic Ocean.  Sea surface temperatures in December are typically declining through the 40’s, falling to an average of 42 to 44 degrees Fahrenheit for the month.  For the first fifteen days of December, those water temperatures are much closer to the upper 40’s and there is the problem.

When water temperatures are in the mid to upper 40’s, the coastal front along the Monmouth and Ocean County coast lines is much stronger.  This coastal front pushes into central Monmouth and Ocean County during storm events, which warms the surface and turns a major snow storm threat into a driving rain storm.  This mesoscale (small scale) climatological feature is what keeps much of central New Jersey from being a winter wonder land for as much as two-thirds of the month of December.  

By the end of December, the water temperatures cool off into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s, which is far more conducive for snow and ice development on the coastal plain.  When the coastal front is weaker, the potential influence of the Atlantic Ocean is limited and thus the potential for winter storms is far greater.  Note that the past two years, New Jersey has been impacted by two major winter storms, one on 12/20/09 and the other on 12/26/10.  Will another winter storm greet old Saint Nick this Christmas?

Well, let’s just say I have my eye on a few prospects.